Friday, October 30, 2009

Yes, Matt is World Serious.

OK, so these World Series predictions are very late. But Matt had a good reason for being late. (More about that later.) You'll just have to take Matt at this word that he made these predictions before the Series started, not three games in.
So Matt picked the Phillies to win game one, followed by two Yankees victories...
Just kidding. Matt picked the Phillies in four. Which sounds bad because 1) it's clearly wrong, even at this point and 2) it sounds like Yankee hating. That second one isn't true. It's not Yankee hating, it's just faulty logic and bad hunches.
That being said, here's a recap of how we got here:
Matt picked one of the four first-round division championship matchups correct. Hooray!
Then, in the League Championship Series, Matt picked the Angels in seven and the Phillies in four. That's a .500 batting average. That would be an all-time record! Success! Or something like that.
And now the Yankees and Phillies are matched up. This is going to be a classic series. The Series is filled with great players amid two storied franchises. There are several positions where you could spend all month debating which player you'd rather have (Utley or Cano, Jeter or Rollins, Teixeira or Howard, Sabathia or Lee, Posada or Ruiz?). The starting staffs are excellent and both managers have different styles and strategies. It should be great, great baseball.
So Matt picks the Phillies in four. Why?
Well, Matt is picking the Phillies because he believes the team is just too deep. One through eight, the lineup never lets up. And the pitching has been dynamite - even the relievers.
Either way, Matt believes the key players in the Series are Cole Hamels and Alex Roidriguez. If Hamels can pitch like last year (he hasn't shown he can) then the Phillies will win, easily. If A-Rod continues to tear up pitchers (as he has in the first two rounds), the Yankees may be unstoppable.
So why Phils in Phour? This is all about bad instincts and nothing to do with good baseball logic. Matt has had A LOT of time to sit and watch baseball as he feeds Mark, burps Mark and tries to get Mark to go to sleep. In each round, there has been lots of bad serieses (seri?) but almost all great, close games.
So why not predict the trend will continue, even though - logically speaking - those past serieseseses are not a predictor for future results.
So Matt believes - for no solid reason - there will be four great games and the Phillies will have a little more in each one.
Which is clearly wrong.

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