Hall of Agonizing Debates

Well, the Hall of Fame ballots are out again. And Matt feels compelled to weigh on who should or should not be elected. Somehow, it seems unfair to judge the worth of men's Major League career when Matt couldn't make the high school freshman team.
But in Matt's defense it's so much fun to debate this stuff! And it is brutally cold out and thinking about baseball is a welcome alternative to scraping car windows.
Now, there a plenty of holdovers on the ballot, so Matt's not going to go in-depth on players he wrote about last year - unless his opinion has changed. And it has.

A quick reminder on Matt's Hall-of-Fame criteria:
One, player should have a decade of excellence.
Two, some semblance of an all-around game.
Three, MVP awards, Cy Youngs, all-star selections count.
Four, no "magic numbers." In other words, 500 homers isn't a free pass. (Cough. Gary Sheffield. Cough.)
Five, excellence in the post season.
Six, and least reliable: the player should make you stop in you tracks. It's a bit nebulous - kind of a you-know-it-when-you-see-it quality. Albert Pujols has it. Mark Teixeira doesn't.

OK, on to the players. (* players new to the ballot)

No way: Kevin Appier*, Ellis Burks*, Pat Hentgen*, Mike Jackson*, Eric Karros*, Ray Lankford*, Shayne Reynolds*, David Segui*, Todd Zeile*. Lankford and Segui should be this year's poison pill players. If you vote for either of them, you lose your right to participate in the Hall of Fame balloting. Vote for Reynolds and you lose your fingers.

Nice career, but not close to Hall of Fame:
Robin Ventura.* I really like Ventura and he's someone I always wanted to have on my team. But he's not a Hall of Famer.
Andres Galarraga. Please. He bulked up at the end of his career, and his numbers benefited from...playing in Colorado.
Alan Trammell. Not sure why the big push for Trammell, other than he's a nice guy. There's dozens of shortstops who were better.

They were very good players and you might have liked to have them in your team's lineup but they aren't Hall of Famers:
Harold Baines. Very nice career. Good hitter. Great? Not really.
Barry Larkin.* Matt suspects there will be a lot of love for the career Red and 1995 MVP. But was he great? A 12-time All-Star, although his last appearance was literally a mercy pick. .295 lifetime average, 198 homers and 379 steals. Again, this is not the Hall of Very Good.
Edgar Martinez.* See Harold Baines, only not as durable - even though he DH'd for most of his career. 300 homers, .312 average, two batting titles and twice in the top 10 for MVP. But he was nowhere near as good as Will Clark, who isn't even considered for the Hall.
Don Mattingly. Great hitter, but not for long enough. Injuries held him back. And just because other people in the Hall had worse career numbers - Hack Wilson - doesn't mean the future Dodgers manager should get in.
Lee Smith. Same question as last year: If there's two outs in the ninth and your team is up by one run, how many guys would you hand the ball to before you thought of Smith?
Dave Parker. Some spectacular years and a lot of below average ones. Did himself in.
Tim Raines. Like Smith, his numbers look better than they really were. He was a very good ballplayer. But among the all-time greats? Honestly? What great moment do you associate with The Rock?

The Almosts But Not Quite:
Bert Blyleven. Hall of Fame person, maybe even a Hall of Fame broadcaster. His stats accumulated well. Still a borderline no.
Dale Murphy. Like Blyleven, a very, very uncomfortable no. But no protests in Cooperstown if he is elected. Two MVPS is nothing to sneeze at.
Fred McGriff.* Twice led the league in homers and had eight seasons with 100+ RBIs. Four times in the top 10 MVP voting and a five-time All Star. A .303 lifetime postseason average, including four World Series homers. No Gold Gloves and wasn't a base stealer. Steadily good, but never spectacular. Always sort of second banana on his team, like a low-rent Scottie Pippen. You knew he was good, but you were never sure if he could shine on his own. Ugh, this is an agonizing case, particularly because he'd get 50 more votes if he'd hit seven more homers. No, but Matt could certainly be convinced.
Mark McGwire. Yep, Matt moved him down even though Big Mac added no new plate appearances in the last year. But it has nothing to do with steroids. OK, it has something to do with steroids because Matt deflates those 573 home runs a bit knowing they were artificially enhanced. But here's the real reason: McGwire couldn't run, wasn't a great fielder and couldn't hit for average. So if you lower his home run total, what's left? Next year Matt will probably change his mind again.

Yes, they should be in, although it's not a slam dunk:
Roberto Alomar.* Every instinct made Matt not want to vote for Roberto Alomar. Partly because Alomar was a jerk. Partly because he faded so fast and so dramatically, but made sure to steal money from the White Sox and Mets on his way out. But, darn it, for 10 years Alomar could do it all at second base: field beautifully (10 Gold Gloves), steal bases and hit for average as well as power. Plus, he came up big when it counted. This isn't the sweet guy Hall of Fame. He was a great second baseman.
Andre Dawson. Dawson could still do it all - run, field and bash - and he did for 10+ years. Matt can understand the arguments against him, too. But if Dawson was a Yankee, he'd be polishing his plaque by now. And he was certainly better than Jim Rice. He's probably most likely to be elected this year.
Jack Morris. OK, so Matt changed his mind on this one, too. Yes, Morris has a nasty ERA (3.90). But he had 254 wins and more than 2,400 strike outs. And, dang it, he was a workhorse and straight money in the big games. Matt says he should be in. For now.

Absolutely, no doubt: Nobody
This year's class is weak so it could be a good chance for a borderline player like Dawson. Or, it could mean no one gets in. But the upcoming classes are stacked, with one exception.
2011: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, the immortal Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina (would make an interesting induction speech)
2012: The best candidates are Jeromy Burnitz and Bernie Williams. Uh, no.
2013: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton. Wow. That will make for some good debates.
2014: Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas, and, of course, Steve Trachsel

What's fun now is that for some of those guys Matt watched their entire careers. Of course, that makes Matt feel very, very old, too.
But why believe Matt?
Keith Olbermann has his opinions on the Baseball Nerd Blog, not that Matt agrees with all his assessments. (Lee Smith led the league in saves more times than Mariano Rivera, so he should be in. Um, Rivera's done a few things Smith never did.)